Surprise! Mock Draft (1-10)

Posted: April 16, 2012 in Draft, NFL, Sports
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

So, I’ve been reading over a lot of mock drafts lately and all I’ve come up with is after the first 2 picks no one seems to have any idea what’s going to happen. Will someone trade up to 3 or 4? What will the Browns do? Well, I’m going to attempt to answer those question. For each team I’m going to list 2 picks. The first will be who seems most likely to be taken. The second will be a guy I consider a fit for the team, but would be a bit of a surprise (at least to most of the analysts I’ve read)

Pick 1: Colts

Predicted: Andrew Luck

Surprise!: Robert Griffin III

Analysis: There’s no where to go but these two with number 1 pick Indy needs it’s QB of the future and while I have no doubt they take Luck, I think they’d be just as happy with Griffin.

Pick 2: Redskins

Predicted: Robert Griffin III

Surprise!: Andrew Luck

Analysis: Like the Colts the Skins have nowhere else to go (they didn’t give up all those pick to grab Matt Kalil, no matter how good you think he is.) One way or the other Washington is getting a franchise QB

Pick 3: Vikings

Predicted: LT, Matt Kalil

Surprise!: WR, Justin Blackmon

Analysis: Kalil has been a consensus pick for awhile, personally I think the Vikes trade this pick if they get the chance, they’ve got quite a few holes and there are a lot of promising LT in this class. Even if they do keep the pick Blackmon would fill a big need at Receiver. Percy Harvin isn’t enough, and his injury history makes getting Christian Ponder some targets an even more urgent need.

Pick 4: Browns

Predicted: RB, Trent Richardson

Surprise!: WR, Michael Floyd

Analysis: So, Richardson isn’t exactly unanimous, but he’s my new favorite for the pick. I was initially a big supporter of Morris Claibourne, I still think he’s a good pick up, but I can’t help thinking Richardson is too good to pass on. He gives the Browns help as a runner, receiver and pass blocker…sort of like 3 birds with one stone. I considered making Claibourne my surprise, but that’s kind of a lame surprise, instead I’m going with Michael Floyd, he’s 6’2 he’s fast, good hands and he’s local having played his college ball at Notre Dame so you know the front office has seen him play.

Pick 5: Buccaneers

Predicted: CB, Morris Claiborne

Surprise!: S, Mark Barron

Analysis: Claiborne is the general consensus (or Richardson if he gets past the Browns) and that seems likely, but Eric Wright now on the roster, and the likelihood that Janoris Jenkins will still be on the board when they pick in the 2nd Barron provides a good option. With Tanard Jackson gone and schedule that includes Jimmy Graham and Greg Olsen (not to mention an aged, but still dangerous Tony Gonzalez) twice a year Barron provides much needed help over the middle.

Pick 6: Rams

Predicted: WR, Justin Blackmon

Surprise!: LT, Jonathan Martin

Analysis: If Blackmon is available they take him, no question, no surprise. If he’s not the Rams are left with a choice. If Morris Claiborne is still available he makes sense to play opposite Cortland Finnegan, there’s also any number of other receivers available, but I could also see St. Louis making a move to upgrade the O-Line. They grab Martin at 6 let Sam Bradford breathe a little easier and pick up a new target for him in the 2nd.

Pick 7: Jaguars

Predicted: LT, Reilly Reiff

Surprise!: CB, Morris Claiborne

Analysis: There’s a lot of talk that the Jags will take a pass rusher at #7. I think that’s a huge mistake. Blaine Gabbert was scared for him life in the pocket last season. Grabbing Reiff will at least cover up his blind side, and hopefully give him time to find his new targets. In the surprise! draft Claiborne has fallen to 7 and the Jaguars add him to give them a more respectable secondary.

Pick 8: Dolphins

Predicted: QB, Ryan Tannehill

Surprise!: WR, Stephen Hill

Analysis: So, Ideally my surprise would have been Michael Floyd, but he’s off the surprise! board already so I’m going with Hill. Everyone has Tannehill pegged to the Dolphins, and honestly I like the move. Matt Moore can and should be the starter and then in a year (or even 2) Tannehill can take over (potentially with Moore moving to a back-up role if there’s nothing better out there for him) BUT the Dolphins traded Brandon Marshall, so WR is a pretty big need, and at 6’5 Hill is a pretty big guy. There are a lot of questions about how much finishing he’ll need, but I’m not worried, he’s big, he’s fast and he’s willing to put in work. The Dolphins shouldn’t mind reaching…and they can still grab Kirk Cousins in the 2nd.

Pick 9: Panthers

Predicted: DT, Jerel Worthy

Surprise!: DE, Nick Perry

Analysis: So, my prediction actually sort of doubles as a surprise. DT seems to be the popular choice, but most have Dontari Poe, or Fletcher Cox in the spot. I just happen to prefer Worthy, maybe Carolina will too. Perry is my surprise! Albeit not a stunning one, but the Panthers need pass rush help in a bad way, I think Perry helps them.

Pick 10: Bills

Predicted: LT, Jonathan Martin

Surprise!: QB, Ryan Tannehill

Analysis: Some say it will be Reiff taken here, but the consensus is that Bills need a LT for the future to lock down Ryan Fitzpatrick’s blindside. Necessary, but a bit boring. My surprise pick is Tannehill (in part because I already have 3 WR’s off the board) but also because I think the Bills could take a chance on him. Chan Gailey would love to have a WR turned QB and there’s really no solid back-up plan behind Fitzpatrick…I know it end up being a ton of money in the QB spot and a hole in the O-Line, but there will be other lineman, and Fitzpatrick seems like he could be a good guy to learn from. *For the record I also like MLB Luke Kuechly at this spot to help lock down the middle of the field for what is becoming a solid defense.

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