First a disclaimer, I get most of my information from NFL.com and my mock is based off reading there analysts mocks and adjusting to what I think a team will (or should) do with their first round pick.
UPDATE 4/12/14: With the combine down, and free agency underway I’m making some changes to my top 10.
1. Texans select DE Jadaveon Clowney
Maybe it’s just a smokescreen, or media fabrication, but it seems like no one in the Texans organization has anything bad to say about Clowney, including the team’s owner. Clowney’s got a ready made support system, and the Texans have a hole to fill opposite J.J. Watt. They could use upgrades along the offensive line, but I’m inclined to agree with Bill O’Brien on the QB’s in this year’s class; there just isn’t enough separation between the guys you can get at No. 1 and No. 33 to justify passing on a top defender.
2. Rams select OT Greg Robinson
Ultimately the Rams could trade out of this pick, but it seems like most teams are trying to move back this year, not up. If the Rams do make their pick Robinson can be a big bodied bookend to pair with Jake Long, and eventually take over on the left side, much like last year’s top picks Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel.
3. Jaguars select OLB Khalil Mack
Mack’s draft stock has exploded during this offseason and I think he finds his home in Jacksonville. Jacksonville isn’t ready to support a franchise QB and taking one at #3 is setting them up to fail. WR Sammy Watkins has made a pretty strong case for himself, but ultimately Gus Bradley is defense guy and I think the Jags look to lock up their primary pass rusher here, and add a QB and WR in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
4. Browns select WR Sammy Watkins
Josh Gordon had a breakout season, but let’s not forget that it started with a 2 game suspension, and the Browns are thin at WR behind the former Baylor star. Pairing Watkins with Gordon on the outside, newly signed Andrew Hawkins in the slot and Jordan Cameron at TE would give the Browns one of the more fearsome aerial arsenal’s in the league. Which is good because new Brown’s OC Kyle Shanahan loves to pass.
5. Raiders select OLB/DE Anthony Barr
The Raiders wanted to put themselves in position to take the best player and I think Barr is it. There are still some questions about what his best positional fit is, as he’s currently a little light to play at DE and struggles a bit in pass protection for a true OLB. But, I think he can be used effectively as a situational pass rusher during his rookie campaign while adding some weight and learning to play better in coverage and against the run. This is essentially the same strategy used by the 49ers when they drafted Aldon Smith, and that seems to have worked out.
6. Falcons select OT Jake Matthews
After last season’s offensive collapse item number 1 on the Falcons agenda has to be better protection for Matt Ryan. Matthews is an elite tackle prospect who can play on either the left or right side of the line depending upon what Atlanta wants to do with current left tackle Sam Baker.
7. Buccaneers select WR Mike Evans
Mike Williams is on a short leash with the new coach staff, and he’s also coming back from a hamstring injury that caused him to miss most of last season. Vincent Jackson posted his 3rd consecutive 1,000+ yard season (the past 2 in Tampa) but he’s 31 years old, and saw his production dip last season. Evans would be able to learn the game from someone with a similar skill set in Jackson, and eventually take over his role as the team’s #1 option.
8. Vikings select DT Timmy Jernigan
With Barr and Mack off the board I think the Vikings continue their youth movement along the defensive line, pairing the former Seminole with Shariff Floyd and Everson Griffin. Jernigan is a bit undersized, but that’s never been a problem for Mike Zimmer before. Jernigan is strong, has a good motor and plays well against the run. He’s also proven versatile after playing all over in both 3 and 4 man fronts at Florida State. Inside linebacker CJ Mosely could also be in play here, but there are some injury concerns that might make him too risky to take this high. Cornerback is deep enough to wait on after signing Captain Munnerlynn, and with no QB’s off the board I’m not convinced the Vikings will be the first to blink.
9. Bills select S Haha Clinton-Dix
With Jarius Byrd gone and the in-house replacements a bit scarce the Bills opt for the Alabama standout safety to sure up the back end. I still like Eric Ebron’s talent, but I’m still not convinced he’s earned a top 10 pick, and while the argument for LT Taylor Lewan is compelling on paper Cordy Glenn has proven more than capable holding down that job, and sliding him to RT hardly feels like a just reward for the player most analysts had pegged as a guard at the NFL level.
10. Lions select CB Justin Gilbert
Cornerback has been a position of need for awhile. I think Mike Evans could still be in play, but it looks like they’ll have to trade up to grab him. If the Lions do decide to stay put at #10 Gilbert could go a long way towards helping the Lions shut down the high powered aerial attacks of their NFC North rivals.
Bubblegum Backwash 